This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real … economy.We use data on diffusion indices collected by the People's Bank of China for forecasting industrial production, retail … variable, generally outperform univariate AR models in forecasting one to four quarters ahead.Similarly, principal components …

relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that …, when monetary and credit aggregates are loaded directly in the forecasting equation, the additional gains over the … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We …

proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in short-term and medium-term forecasting. Using real-time GDP data since …

-time estimates to check the stability of the estimates to GDP revisions. We finally run a forecasting experiment to evaluate the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

Allocation algorithm. For the forecasting experiment, we select 10 sign-adjusted topics that show strong correlations with GDP … information beyond professional forecasts. In an out-of-sample forecasting experiment, we also find that combining Dynamic Factor … solely on hard data across all forecasting horizons, with the greatest improvements seen in nowcasts. These results …