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Konjunkturelle Frühindikatoren in der Krise: weiche Faktoren stärker als harte
Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Kooths, Stefan - In: DIW Wochenbericht 76 (2009) 21, pp. 348-354
Die aktuelle Wirtschaftskrise wirft die Frage auf, ob nicht durch eine bessere Ausschöpfung der in den verschiedenen Frühindikatoren enthaltenen Informationen die aufgetretenen Prognosefehler hätten vermieden werden können. Dies gilt insbesondere vor dem Hintergrund des überraschend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602002
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Using national payment system data to nowcast economic activity in Azerbaijan
Huseynov, Ilkin; Ramazanova, Nazrin; Valirzayev, Hikmat - 2022
nowcasting performance of these models against the benchmark model in terms of the out-of-sample root mean square error at three …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374307
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Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach
Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; … - 2011
In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a wide selection of individual models within each model class are combined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143776
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Short-Term Forecasting of GDP and Inflation in Real-Time: Norges Bank's System for Averaging Models
Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie - 2011
In this paper we describe Norges Bank's system for averaging models (SAM) which produces model-based density forecasts for Norwegian Mainland GDP and inflation. We combine the forecasts from three main types of models typically used at central banks: Vector autoregressive models, leading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012144014
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Step by step - A quarterly evaluation of EU Commission's GDP forecasts
Heinisch, Katja - 2024
The European Commission's growth forecasts play a crucial role in shaping policies and provide a benchmark for many (national) forecasters. The annual forecasts are built on quarterly estimates, which do not receive much attention and are hardly known. Therefore, this paper provides a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015078413
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Density Forecasts with Midas Models
Aastveit, Knut Are; Foroni, Claudia; Ravazzolo, Francesco - 2014
In this paper we derive a general parametric bootstrapping approach to compute density forecasts for various types of mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. We consider both classical and unrestricted MIDAS regressions with and without an autoregressive component. First, we compare the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143848
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Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment
Drechsel, Katja; Scheufele, Rolf - 2013
computationally simple and can be easily implemented as a nowcasting tool. Finally, this method also allows retracing the driving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010314774
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Macroeconomic now- and forecasting based on the factor error correction model using targeted mixed frequency indicators
Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol - 2016
forecasting macroeconomic key variables such as GDP. However, the DFM has some weaknesses. For nowcasting, the dynamic factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011567405
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Nowcasting des deutschen BIP
Doll, Jens; Rosenthal, Beatrice; Volkenand, Jonas; … - 2017
sogenannten "Nowcasting"-Modellen, deren Prognosegüte mit jedem neu verfügbaren, das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt beeinflussenden …-up-Modellierung Nowcasting-Prognosen für das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt ermöglicht. Hierbei bringt es mit der verwendeten Kombination von … Modellen einen neuen Ansatz in die aktuelle Literatur des Nowcasting für das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt ein. Durch die …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011643852
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Nowcasting real GDP growth: Comparison between old and new EU countries
Koécenda, Evézen; Poghosyan, Karen - 2020
We analyze the performance of a broad range of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for a representative set of … indicators that come from a comparable set of identical data. We show that nowcasting works well for the new EU countries because … nowcasting is on average somewhat larger. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389263