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We suggest a theoretical basis for the comparative evaluation of forecasts. Instead of the general assumption that the data is generated from a stochastic model, we classify three stages of prediction experiments: pure non-stochastic prediction of given data, stochastic prediction of given data,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293709
as a pseudo real time forecasting exercise, i.e. due account is taken of the pattern of available monthly variables over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605021
limited to short-term predictions, the value of Google data for forecasting purposes is episodic, and the improvements in … forecasting accuracy are only modest. The results, obtained by (pseudo) out-of-sample forecast comparison, are robust to a state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037588
There are over 3 billion searches globally on Google every day. This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future unemployment rate in Finland. Predicting the present and the near future is of interest, as the official records of the state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037651
In this report we document the ETLAnow project. ETLAnow is a model for forecasting with big data. At the moment, it …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037674
This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future house prices in Finland. Compared to a simple benchmark model, Google searches improve the prediction of the present house price index by 7.5 % measured by mean absolute error. In addition,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037683
have been shown to improve forecasting models for various economic and financial series. In the aftermath of the global … financial crisis, modeling and forecasting mortgage demand and subsequent approvals have become a central issue in the banking … number of new mortgage approvals and markedly improve their nowcasting and forecasting performance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012063503
This paper deals with the estimation of employment equations for Germany, which are to be used for forecasting and …, however, is affected by German reunification and relative factor prices no longer play a significant role. The forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460436
We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317084
We apply the boosting estimation method to investigate to what ex-tent and at what horizons macroeconomic time series have nonlinearpredictability coming from their own history. Our results indicate thatthe U.S. macroeconomic time series have more exploitable nonlinearpredictability than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503077