In this paper, we assess whether key relations between US interest rates have been stable over time. This is done by estimating trivariate hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models with stochastic volatility for the three-month Treasury bill rate, the slope of the Treasury yield curve...

The increasing availability of data and potential predictor variables poses new challenges to forecasters. The task of formulating a single forecasting model that can extract all the relevant information is becoming increasingly difficult in the face of this abundance of data. The two leading...

Large scale Bayesian model averaging and variable selection exercises present, despite the great increase in desktop computing power, considerable computational challenges. Due to the large scale it is impossible to evaluate all possible models and estimates of posterior probabilities are...

We consider forecast combination and, indirectly, model selection for VAR models when there is uncertainty about which variables to include in the model in addition to the forecast variables. The key di erence from traditional Bayesian variable selection is that we also allow for uncertainty...

The multivariate reduced rank regression model plays an important role in econo- metrics. Examples include co-integration analysis and models with a factor struc- ture. Geweke (1996) provided the foundations for a Bayesian analysis of this model. Unfortunately several of the full conditional...

Prepared for the Handbook of Economic Forecasting, vol 2 This chapter reviews Bayesian methods for inference and forecasting with VAR models. Bayesian inference and, by extension, forecasting depends on numerical methods for simulating from the posterior distribution of the parameters and spe-...

This paper considers Bayesian inference procedures for regression models with ordinally observed explanatory variables. Taking advantage of a latent variable interpretation of the ordinally observed variable we develop an efficient Bayesian inference procedure that estimates the regression model...

We use a rich longitudinal data set following a cohort of Swedish women from age 10 to 49 to analyse the effects of birth and early-life conditions on adulthood outcomes. These latter include both well-being and the stress hormone cortisol. Employment and marital status are important adult...

Inflation did not fall as much as many economists expected as the Great Recession hit the US economy. One explanation suggested for this phenomenon is that the Phillips curve has become flatter. In this paper we investigate the stability of the US Phillips curve, employing Bayesian VARs to...

We use Bayesian techniques to estimate bivariate VAR models for Swedish unemployment rate and inflation. Employing quarterly data from 1995Q1 to 2017Q3 and new tools for model selection, we compare a model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to a specification with constant...