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This paper provides a new perspective on the exchange rate disconnect puzzle by referring to the expectations building … mechanism in foreign exchange markets. Therefore, we analyze the role of expectations regarding macroeconomic fundamentals for … expected exchange rate changes. In doing so, we assess data for 31 economies from 2002 to 2017 and consider expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012287905
This paper provides a new perspective on the exchange rate disconnect puzzle by referring to the expectations building … mechanism in foreign exchange markets. We analyze the role of expectations regarding macroeconomic fundamentals for expected … expectations regarding GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and current accounts. Our empirical findings show that fundamentals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012939153
developments into account while expectations for minor currencies react stronger to response policies. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012803887
question analysed in this paper. In contrast to other studies we use expectations data instead of observable variables …. Therefore we analyse the implicit structural models forecasters have in mind when forming their exchange rate expectations. The … models using the categorical expectations data of the ZEW financial market survey. The expectation variables used to explain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297610
This paper provides an empirical test of the scapegoat theory of exchange rates (Bacchetta and van Wincoop 2004, 2011), as an attempt to evaluate its potential for explaining the poor empirical performance of traditional exchange rate models. This theory suggests that market participants may at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605463
This paper provides an empirical test of the scapegoat theory of exchange rates (Bacchetta and van Wincoop 2004, 2011). This theory suggests that market participants may at times attach significantly more weight to individual economic fundamentals to rationalize the pricing of currencies, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312836
Sluggish adjustment of expectations to new information is rational in an environment characterized by information costs … expectations using data from Consensus Economics for eight emerging and industrial economies from 1999 until 2015. Our results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011892133
This paper shows that exchange rates respond to only the surprise component of an actual US monetary policy change and that failure to disentangle the surprise component from the actual monetary policy change can lead to an underestimation of the impact of monetary policy, or even to a false...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320908
day-to-day changes in expectations of future US monetary policy, in the context of a study of day-to-day exchange rate … changes. We analyze more than 12 years of daily exchange rate data and show that continuous day-to-day changes in expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320954
This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … the adjustment of exchange rate expectations. Our findings are robust to different forecasting horizons and point to an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011533201