This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results, based upon a new model that approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate. The theoretical derivation of our forecasting...

Drawing comparisons between the fiscal architecture and situation in the US and the European Union, Bruegel Research Fellow Zsolt Darvas answers three questions in this Policy Contribution- Why has the euro been hit so hard? How would a more federal European fiscal union closer to the US model...

Resident Fellows Zsolt Darvas and Jakob von Weizsäcker wrote this paper on the pros and cons of a Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) following testimony von Weizsäcker gave for the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament. They argue that a small tax on financial...

In this paper, original written for the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON) of the European Parliament on 30 November as part of the series entitled 'The threat of currency wars: global imbalances and their effects on currencies', Bruegel Fellows Jean Pisani-Ferry and Zsolt Darvas...

The crisis has hit central and eastern European countries harder than other regions of the world. In this policy contribution Resident Scholar Zsolt Darvas looks at the role of the EU and its institutions in supporting crisis-hit CEE countries; the stabilising effects of the EU's coordinated...

Resident Fellow Zsolt Darvas takes a look at the issue of the Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - and the challenges facing those three countries in the aftermath of the financial crisis. He argues that because it is in the broader European interest to prevent a collapse in the...

Standard simple-sum monetary aggregates, like M3, sum up monetary assets that are imperfect substitutes and provide different transaction and investment services. Divisia monetary aggregates, originated from Barnett (1980), are derived from economic aggregation and index number theory and aim to...

This working paper details and updates the debt sustainability analysis of Darvas, Sapir and Wolff (2014) for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The goal is not the calculation of a baseline scenario which best corresponds to our views, but to set-up a baseline scenario which broadly corresponds to...

Highlights * Global current account imbalances widened before the 2007/2008 crisis and have narrowed since then. While the post-crisis adjustment of European current account deficits was in line with global developments (though more forceful), European current account surpluses defied global...

Sectoral shifts, such as shrinkage of low labour productivity and the low-wage construction sector, can lead to apparent increased aggregate average labour productivity and average wages, especially when capital intensity differs across sectors. For 11 main sectors and 13 manufacturing...