Using an aggregate credit spread index, we find that it has substantial predictive power for corporate bond returns over short and long horizons. The return predictability is economically and statistically significant and robust to various controls. The credit spread index and its components...

We propose two nonparametric transition density-based speciþcation tests for continuous-time diffusion models. In contrast to marginal density as used in the literature, transition density can capture the full dynamics of a diffusion process, and in particular, can distinguish processes with...

In this paper we analyze the frequency and information content of small Nasdaq stock trades and their impacts on return volatility at the intraday interval. We employ an autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model to estimate the intensity of the arrival and information content of trades by...