Bordo and Helbing (2003) examine the business cycle in Western economies over the 1881-2001 period. They examine four distinct periods in economic history and conclude that there is a secular trend towards greater synchronisation for much of the 20th century, and that it takes place across these...

The aim of this paper is to show that random matrix theory (RMT) can be a useful addition to the economist?s tool-kit in the analysis of macro-economic time series data. A great deal of applied economic work relies upon empirical estimates of the correlation matrix. However due to the finite...

The present study discusses energy supply challenge and assesses renewable energy potential in the studied countries. Moreover, energy demand as well as demand projection is assessed until 2020. Resulting CO2-eq emissions are also projected. The study reveals that the countries under examination...

Asset price processes are completely described by information processes and investors´ preferences. In this paper we derive the relationship between the process of investors´ expectations of the terminal stock price and asset prices in a general continous time pricing kernel framework. To...

In diesem Diskussionspapier werden Ergebnisse einer Untersuchung zu den Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf den EU-Haushalt im Agrarbereich vorgestellt. Die Berechnungen wurden mit dem am IAMO entwickelten partialen Gleichgewichtsmodell 'Central and Eastern European Countries Agricultural...

Die EU-Osterweiterung wirft hinsichtlich der Belastung des EU-Haushaltes erhebliche Fragen auf. Das trifft für beide große Politikbereiche, die aus dem EU-Budget finanziert werden, zu; die Agrarpolitik und die Strukturpolitik. In diesem Beitrag werden nur die Auswirkungen der Übertragung der...

The Central and Eastern European Countries Agricultural Simulation Model (CEEC-ASIM) has been developed at IAMO. It is a partial equilibrium model for the agricultural sectors of 14 countries including demand of domestic consumers and is designed to analyse the impacts of agricultural policies...

The payoff of many credit derivatives depends on the level of credit spreads. In particular, credit derivatives with a leverage component are subject to gap risk, a risk associated with the occurrence of jumps in the underlying credit default swaps. In the framework of first passage time models,...

The payoff of many credit derivatives depends on the level of credit spreads. In particular, the payoff of credit derivatives with a leverage component is sensitive to jumps in the underlying credit spreads. In the framework of first passage time models we extend the model introduced in...

In some circumstances a decision maker, expert, in a group decision making problem cannot express his/her preferences with a unique linguistic fuzzy preference because he/she is dubious into some preferences. In this paper, we present a consensus model for group decision making problems with...