Showing 1 - 10 of 580
Economic, financial and social commentators from all directions and persuasion are obsessed with the prospect of recovery. The world remains mired in a deep, prolonged crisis, and the key question seems to be how to get out of it. The purpose of our paper is to ask a very different question that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011645084
Economic, financial and social commentators from all directions and of various persuasions are obsessed with the prospect of recovery. The world remains mired in a deep, prolonged crisis, and the key question seems to be how to get out of it. The purpose of our paper is to ask a very different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646063
Die gängige Begründung – basierend auf der bahnbrechenden Arbeit Rokkans – dafür, dass ein spezifisches Wahlsystem bevorzugt wird, ist, dass die Verhältniswahl („proportional respresentation“ oder „PR“) von einer zersplitterten Rechte eingeführt wurde, um ihre Klasseninteressen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010307104
In this paper the relatively new technique of neural nets is integrated in a traditional model of portfolio choice. On the basis of Arrow’s State Preference Model the investment decision depends on the expectation building process which consists of two components. The individual information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291745
The Fisher relation played a very different role in debates surrounding the Great Depression and the more recent Great Recession. This paper explores some of these differences, and suggests an explanation for them derived from a sketch of the idea's evolution between the two events, thus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291897
rationally adjust their beliefs about future productivity growth after the arrival of news. A downward revision of expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292050
This working paper comments on Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider's 'Bond Positions, Expectations, and the Yield …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292346
This paper implements a structural model of the yield curve with data on nominal positions and survey forecasts. Bond prices are characterized in terms of investors' current portfolio holdings as well as their subjective beliefs about future bond payoffs. Risk premia measured by an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292351
Informational asymmetries abound in economic decision making and often provide an incentive for deception through telling a lie or misrepresenting information. In this paper I use a cheap-talk sender-receiver experiment to show that telling the truth should be classified as deception too if the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293415
Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been … almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume … expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293441