Prospective customers of financial and insurance products can be targeted based on the profit the provider expects to earn from them. We present a model for individual expected profit and two alternatives for calculating optimal personalized prices that maximize the expected profit. For one of...

In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in excess of different benchmarks, considering the short- and long-term interest rate, the earnings-by-price ratio, and the inflation rate. In particular, we apply in a two-step...

We introduce a new method for the estimation of discount functions, yield curves and forward curves from government issued coupon bonds. Our approach is non-parametric and does not assume particular functional form for the discount function although we do show how to impose various restrictions...

Empirical analyses of Cagan?s money demand schedule for hyper-inflation have largely ignored the explosive nature of hyper-inflationary data. It is argued that this contributes to an (i) inability to model the data to the end of the hyper-inflation, and to (ii) discrepancies between ?estimated?...

Empirical analyses of Cagan's money demand schedule for hyper-inflation have largely ignored the explosive nature of hyper-inflationary data. It is argued that this contributes to an (i) inability to model the data to the end of the hyper-inflation, and to (ii) discrepancies between 'estimated'...

We consider cointegration tests in the situation where the cointegration rank is deficient. This situation is of interest in finite sample analysis and in relation to recent work on identification robust cointegration inference. We derive asymptotic theory for tests for cointegration rank and...

This paper proposes a class of partial cointegrated models allowing for structural breaks in the deterministic terms. Moving-average representations of the models are given. It is then shown that, under the assumption of martingale difference innovations, the limit distributions of partial...

In regression we can delete outliers based upon a preliminary estimator and re-estimate the parameters by least squares based upon the retained observations. We study the properties of an iteratively defined sequence of estimators based on this idea. We relate the sequence to the Huber-skip...

The classical Chow test for structural instability requires strictly exogenous regressors and a break-point specified in advance. In this paper, we consider two generalisations, the one-step recursive Chow test (based on the sequence of studentised recursive residuals) and its supremum...