This study aims to analyze price discovery in the foreign exchange market in Brazil and indicate which market (spot or futures) adjusts more quickly to the arrival of new information. Using high frequency data from January/2008 to June/2013, we estimate the following price discovery metrics:...

We consider a new method to estimate causal effects when a treated unit suffers a shock or an intervention, such as a policy change, but there is not a readily available control group or counterfactual. We propose a two-step approach where in the first stage an artificial counterfactual is...

Recently, there has been a growing interest in developing econometric tools to conduct counterfactual analysis with aggregate data when a “treated” unit suffers an intervention, such as a policy change, and there is no obvious control group. Usually, the proposed methods are based on the...

The goal of this paper is to test for and model nonlinearities in several monthly exchange rates time series. We apply two different nonlinear alternatives, namely: the artificial neural network time series model estimated with Bayesian regularization and a flexible smooth transition...

Annual stress tests have become a regular part of the supervisors' toolkit following the global financial crisis. We investigate their capital market implications in the United States by looking at price and trade reactions, information asymmetry and uncertainty indicators, and bank activities....

The subprime crisis led to a wave of government interventions in the private sector that has been particularly strong in Europe and Latin America, where several governments are large shareholders in a variety of public firms. In a sense, the subprime crisis induced these governments to behave as...

This paper examines the price impact of trading due to expected changes in the FTSE 100 index composition, which employs publicly-known objective criteria to determine membership. Hence, it provides a natural context to investigate anticipatory trading effects. We propose a panel-regression...

This paper investigates the impact of price limits on the Brazilian futures markets using high frequency data. The aim is to identify whether there is a cool-off or a magnet effect. For that purpose, we examine a tick-by-tick data set that includes all contracts on the São Paulo stock...