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We derive forecast weights and uncertainty measures for assessing the role of individual series in a dynamic factor model (DFM) to forecast euro area GDP from monthly indicators. The use of the Kalman filter allows us to deal with publication lags when calculating the above measures. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604797
product, which in turn are used as an input in the forecasting process. Such forecasts reflect and incorporate the flow of … in a synchronous way. The forecasting power of the dynamic factor model is compared with those of several other models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013483516
This Paper proposes a new forecasting method that exploits information from a large panel of time series. The method is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328558
The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure … can be mostly automated and the influence of subjective decisions made in the forecasting process can be significantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512954
encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011307784
Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340981
The article compares forecast quality from two atheoretical models. Neither method assumed a priori causality and forecasts were generated without additional assumptions about regressors. Tendency survey data was used within the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) framework and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011371996
information. Finally, when forecasting the headline CPI, our UIG for China outperforms traditional core measures over different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011420978
in its ability to accurately capture clusters and preserve or enhance forecasting accuracy. For a high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012427178
-time forecasting exercise, the authors show that including additional factors - that reflect financial sector conditions - improves …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011478670