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We derive forecast weights and uncertainty measures for assessing the role of individual series in a dynamic factor model (DFM) to forecast euro area GDP from monthly indicators. The use of the Kalman filter allows us to deal with publication lags when calculating the above measures. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604797
In this paper we extract latent factors from a large cross-section of commodity prices, including fuel and non-fuel commodities. We decompose each commodity price series into a global (or common) component, block-specific components and a purely idiosyncratic shock. We find that the bulk of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011853300
in its ability to accurately capture clusters and preserve or enhance forecasting accuracy. For a high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012427178
product, which in turn are used as an input in the forecasting process. Such forecasts reflect and incorporate the flow of … in a synchronous way. The forecasting power of the dynamic factor model is compared with those of several other models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013483516
This Paper proposes a new forecasting method that exploits information from a large panel of time series. The method is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328558
-time forecasting exercise, the authors show that including additional factors - that reflect financial sector conditions - improves …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011478670
use of measures of underlying in?ation to formulate monetary policy and assist in forecasting observed in?ation. Recent … disaggregated price indices for European countries. We then assess the forecasting ability of these factor estimates against other … 12 to 18 months is adopted as a valid criterion to assess forecasting. Empirical results for the ?ve largest euro area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604448
Forecasts from dynamic factor models potentially benefit from refining the data set by eliminating uninformative series. The paper proposes to use prediction weights as provided by the factor model itself for this purpose. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application to short-term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605938
The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure … can be mostly automated and the influence of subjective decisions made in the forecasting process can be significantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512954
encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011307784