The consequences of consolidating EU representation at the IMF Executive Board by regrouping the 27 Member States into two EU constituencies, euro area and non-euro area, are discussed. In particular we contrast voting power as proposed by Penrose-Banzhaf (PBI) and Shapley-Shubik (SSI), and...

We analyze the effectiveness of intervention in the European Monetary System by using daily data on the DEM-intervention activity of six European central banks, covering the period from August 1993 to April 1998. To test for the influence of intervention we apply EGARCH models. To allow for...

In this paper, we present stylized facts of exchange rate and intervention behavior in the Exchange Rate Mechanism I (ERM I), in particular in light of the recent literature on multilateral target zone models. We estimate bilateral exchange rate distributions of the maximum spot rate deviations...

We analyze the effectiveness of intervention in the European Monetary System by using daily data on the DEM-intervention activity of six European central banks, covering the period from August 1993 to April 1998. To test for the influence of intervention we apply EGARCH models. To allow for...

In this paper, we present stylized facts of exchange rate and intervention behavior in the Exchange Rate Mechanism I (ERM I), in particular in light of the recent literature on multilateral target zone models. We estimate bilateral exchange rate distributions of the maximum spot rate deviations...

In this paper, the author empirically assesses the predictive power of short-term interest rates and term spreads for future inflation in Germany. Based on a multivariate term structure framework, a vector error forecasting equation for inflation forecasts of up to two years is constructed. The...

This paper calculates structural balances for EU-countries and relates them to fiscal sustainability. Although the Stability Pact implicitly accepts the need to distinguish between the structural and the cyclical component of net deficits, the issue of long-term sustainability is only covered by...

According to the Pact for Stability and Growth (PSG), in the medium term the net deficit should be close to balance or in surplus. We question the use of the net deficit as the only medium-term budgetary objective and as the main indicator for the assessment of fiscal policy. Hence, for...