Based on a record sample from the Rayleigh model, we consider the problem of estimating the scale and location parameters of the model and predicting the future unobserved record data. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches under different loss functions are used to estimate the model's...

We present a new procedure for detecting multiple additive outliers in GARCH(1,1) models at unknown dates. The outlier candidates are the observations with the largest standardized residual. First, a likelihood-ratio based test determines the presence and timing of an outlier. Next, a second...

We introduce a computationally tractable dynamic equilibrium model of the automobile market where new and used cars of multiple types (e.g. makes/models) are traded by heterogeneous consumers. Prices and quantities are determined endogenously to equate supply and demand for all car types and...

A new method to estimate longevity risk based on the kernel estimation of the extreme quantiles of truncated age-at-death distributions is proposed. Its theoretical properties are presented and a simulation study is reported. The flexible yet accurate estimation of extreme quantiles of...

The paper presents a systematic theory for asymptotic inferences based on autocovariances of stationary processes. We consider nonparametric tests for se rial correlations using the maximum and the quadratic deviations of sample autocovariances. For these cases, with proper centering and...

This paper provides a simple, yet general framework to analyze the optimal time profile of benefits during the unemployment spell. We derive simple sufficient-statistics formulae capturing the insurance value and incentive costs of unemployment benefits paid at different times during the...

This paper establishes monotonicity of the chi-square test statistic. As the more efficient parameter estimator is plugged into the test statistic, the degrees of freedom of the resulting chi-square test statistic monotonically increase.

This paper studies the optimal determination of bankruptcy exemptions for risk averse borrowers who use unsecured contracts but have the possibility of defaulting. I show that, in a large class of economies, knowledge of four variables is sufficient to determine whether a bankruptcy exemption...

Central to the welfare analysis of income transfer programs is the deadweight loss associated with possible reforms. To aid analytical tractability, its measurement typically requires specifying a simplified model of behavior. We employ a complementary "decomposition" approach that compares the...

This paper develops a sufficient statistics approach for estimating the role of search frictions in wage dispersion and lifecycle wage growth. We show how the wage dynamics of displaced workers are directly informative of both for a large class of search models. Specifically, the correlation...