Stochastic models and methods for quantifying extreme events are of interest in numerous disciplines. Within this paper, statistical prediction of extreme claims or losses in insurance industry is considered based on upper record values, which describe successively largest observations in a...

Based on a record sample from the Rayleigh model, we consider the problem of estimating the scale and location parameters of the model and predicting the future unobserved record data. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches under different loss functions are used to estimate the model's...

We present a new procedure for detecting multiple additive outliers in GARCH(1,1) models at unknown dates. The outlier candidates are the observations with the largest standardized residual. First, a likelihood-ratio based test determines the presence and timing of an outlier. Next, a second...

Cyber incidents are among the most critical business risks for organisations and can lead to large financial losses. However, previous research on loss modelling is based on unassured data sources because the representativeness and completeness of op-risk databases cannot be assured. Moreover,...

A new method to estimate longevity risk based on the kernel estimation of the extreme quantiles of truncated age-at-death distributions is proposed. Its theoretical properties are presented and a simulation study is reported. The flexible yet accurate estimation of extreme quantiles of...

The paper presents a systematic theory for asymptotic inferences based on autocovariances of stationary processes. We consider nonparametric tests for se rial correlations using the maximum and the quadratic deviations of sample autocovariances. For these cases, with proper centering and...

We introduce a computationally tractable dynamic equilibrium model of the automobile market where new and used cars of multiple types (e.g. makes/models) are traded by heterogeneous consumers. Prices and quantities are determined endogenously to equate supply and demand for all car types and...

This paper develops a sufficient statistics approach for estimating the role of search frictions in wage dispersion and life-cycle wage growth. We show how the wage dynamics of displaced workers are directly informative of both for a large class of search models. Specifically, the correlation...

Leveraging the introduction of universal low-fee daycare in Québec in 1997, we assess the welfare effect of universal childcare provision. First, using novel data on local daycare coverage and a difference-in-differences design, we show that positive impacts on maternal labor supply and...

We derive closed-form solutions and sufficient statistics for inflation and GDP dynamics in multi-sector New Keynesian economies with arbitrary input-output linkages. Analytically, we decompose how production linkages (1) amplify the persistence of inflation and GDP responses to monetary and...