This paper compares the goods and characteristics models of the consumer within a non-parametric revealed preference framework. Of primary interest is to make a comparison on the basis of predictive success that takes into account dimension reduction. This allows us to nonparametrically identify...

The paper investigates the predictive power of a new survey implemented by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) for forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA's regional agencies are asked about their expectations of future labor market developments. We...

The paper investigates the predictive power of a new survey implemented by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) for forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA's regional agencies are asked about their expectations of future labor market developments. We...

A procedure for testing the signicance of a subset of explanatory variables in a nonparametric regression is proposed. Our test statistic uses the kernel method. Under the null hypothesis of no effect of the variables under test, we show that our test statistic has a nhp2/2 standard normal...

In the large empirical literature that investigates the causal effects of education on outcomes such as health, wages and crime, it is customary to measure education with years of schooling, and to identify these effects using the exogenous variation provided by school reforms increasing...

In this paper we apply statistical inference techniques to build neural network models which are able to explain the prices of call options written on the German stock index DAX. By testing for the explanatory power of several input variables serving as network inputs, some insight into the...

In this article we examine how model selection in neural networks can be guided by statistical procedures such as hypotheses tests, information criteria and cross validation. The application of these methods in neural network models is discussed, paying attention especially to the identification...

In this paper we study statistical inference for certain inverse problems. We go beyond mere estimation purposes and review and develop the construction of confidence intervals and confidence bands in some inverse problems, including deconvolution and the backward heat equation. Further, we...

In the microsimulation literature, it is still uncommon to test the statistical significance of results. In this paper we argue that this situation is both undesirable and unnecessary. Provided the parameters used in the microsimulation are exogenous, as is often the case in static...

In Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) automobile insurance, the premium is fixed based on the distance traveled, while in usage-based insurance (UBI) the driving patterns of the policyholder are also considered. In those schemes, drivers who drive more pay a higher premium compared to those with the same...