A Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented that makes use of a finite mixture of many model structures within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. It is applied to two empirical issues. First, stability of the Great Ratios in U.S. macro-economic time series is investigated,...

The empirical support for a real business cycle model with two technology shocks is evaluated using a Bayesian model averaging procedure. This procedure makes use of a finite mixture of many models within the class ofvector autoregressive (VAR) processes. The linear VAR model is extendedto...

The empirical support for features of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with two technology shocks is valuated using Bayesian model averaging over vector autoregressions. The model features include equilibria, restrictions on long-run responses, a structural break of unknown date...

The degree of empirical support of a priori plausible structures on the cointegration vectors has a central role in the analysis of cointegration. Villani (2000) and Strachan and van Dijk (2003) have recently proposed finite sample Bayesian procedures to calculate the posterior probability of...

Motivated by the Kyle-Back model of 'insider trading', we consider certain classes of linear transformations of two independent Brownian motions and study their canonical decomposition as semimartingales in their own filtration. In particular we characterize those transformations which generate...

We show the existence, for any k E N, of processes which have the same k-marginals as Brownian motion, although they are not Brownian motions. For k = 4, this proves a conjecture of Stoyanov. The law P' of such a weak Brownian motion of order k can be constructed to be equivalent to Wiener...

Consider a d-dimensional Brownian motion X (Xl, ... ,Xd ) and a function F which belongs locally to the Sobolev space W 1,2. We prove an extension of Ito's formula where the usual second order terms are replaced by the quadratic covariations [fk(X), Xkj involving the weak first partial...

We consider models of time continuous financial markets with a regular trader and an insider who are able to invest into one risky asset. The insider's additional knowledge consists in his ability to stop a random time which is inaccessible to the regular trader, such as the last passage of a...

In this paper, I study the dynamic delegation problem in a principal-agent model wherein an agent privately observes a persistently evolving state, and the principal commits to actions based on the agent's reported state. There are no transfers. While the agent has state-independent preferences,...

European economic integration is commonly believed to be incomplete, and that further reforms are needed. In this context, the union of U.S. states is considered the benchmark of complete economic integration and is often the basis for comparison regarding the extent of E.U economic integration....