We apply wavelet analysis to compare the relationship between simple sum and Divisa monetary aggregates with real GDP and CPI infl ation for the U.S. using data from 1967 to 2013. Wavelet analysis allows to account for variations in the relationships both across the frequency spectrum and across...

We analyse the cross-country dimension of financial cycles by studying cyclical co-movements in credit, house prices, equity prices and interest rates across the G7 economies. We use wavelet-based statistics to assess at which frequencies cyclical fluctuations and their crosscountry co-movements...

We analyse the macroeconomic effects of exogenous contractions in bank lending to non-financial corporations in the Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy and Spain using a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with endogenous hyperparameter selection and identification via sign restrictions. We focus...

This paper shows how to estimate forecast uncertainty about future short-term interest rates by combining a time-varying Taylor rule with an unobserved components model of economic fundamentals. Using this model I separate interest rate uncertainty into economically meaningful components that...

Using real-time data I estimate out-of-sample forecast uncertainty about the Federal Funds Rate. Combining a Taylor rule with a model of economic fundamentals I disentangle economically interpretable components of forecast uncertainty: uncertainty about future economic conditions and uncertainty...

We study cross-country differences in monetary policy transmission across the large four euro-area countries (France, Germany, Italy and Spain) using a large Bayesian vector autoregressive model with endogenous prior selection. Drawing both on the posterior distributions of the cross-country...

We assess the macroeconomic effects of the Eurosystem's asset purchases on the four largest euro area economies using simulation exercises that combine unconventional monetary policy shocks with a fixed policy rate for the duration of the purchase programme. We identify unconventional monetary...

We study the cross‐country dimension of financial cycles for six euro area countries using wavelet analysis. Estimated wavelet cohesions show that cycles in equity prices and interest rates display stronger synchronization across countries than real output cycles, whereas credit variables and...

We update the wavelet-based analysis of the relationship between money growth and inflation in the euro area in Mandler and Scharnagl (2014). The relationship between headline M3 growth and inflation at low frequencies has weakened over the 1990s. However, we find evidence of stable comovement...

We estimate the effects of shocks to interest rate expectations on the four largest euro area economies. We identify these shocks in a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model augmented by survey expectations. We separate the expectations shocks from standard monetary policy shocks by...