In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s...

In this study we examine the dynamic interactions between credit growth and output growth using the spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). Based on quarterly data on credit growth and GDP growth over the period 1957Q1-2012Q4 for the G7 countries we find that: i) spillovers...

This study was prepared by Beate Schirwitz while she was working at the Ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch. It was completed in February 2012 and accepted as a doctoral thesis by the Faculty of Law, Management, and Economics at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz in July 2012. It focuses on a...

This paper applies machine learning to forecast business cycles in the German economy using a high-dimensional dataset with 73 indicators, primarily from the OECD Main Economic Indicator Database, covering a time period from 1973 to 2023. Sequential Floating Forward Selection (SFFS) is used to...

New simple forms of deviation from rational expectations (RE) are suggested: temporary near-rational expectations (TNRE) and persistent near-rational expectations (PNRE). The medium-scale DSGE model was estimated with the RE, the TNRE and the PNRE. It was estimated with and without observations...

This paper has attempted studying the twin issues of asymmetry/leverage effect and excess kurtosis prevalent in India's stock returns under alternative volatility specifications as well as conditional distributional assumptions. This study has been carried out using daily-level data, based on...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relevance of structural breaks for forecasting the volatility of daily returns on BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The data set used in the analysis is the Morgan Stanley Capital International MSCI daily returns and...

In this paper, we investigate whether survey measures of inflation expec-tations in Sweden Granger cause Swedish CPI-inflation. This is done by studying the precision of out-of-sample forecasts from Bayesian VAR models using a sample of quarterly data from 1996 to 2016. It is found that the...

In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting precision of survey expectations of the four financial variables in the Prospera survey commissioned by Sveriges Riksbank – one of Sweden's most important economic surveys. Our analysis shows that the market participants in the survey are able to...

This study examines the impact of sentiment shock, which is defined as a stochastic innovation to the Housing Market Confidence Index (HMCI) that is orthogonal to past housing price changes, on aggregate housing price changes and housing price volatility. This paper documents empirical evidence...