Die internationale Wachstumsdebatte befindet sich immer noch unter dem Einfluss der Finanzkrise, weil sich in den Industriestaaten die Wachstumsraten nicht wie erwartet wieder erholt haben. Die verschiedenen Erklärungsansätze lassen sich in Angebots- und Nachfrageansätze unterscheiden. Die...

This paper examines the comovement of the stock market and of real activity in Germany before World War I under the efficient market hypothesis. We employ multivariate spectral analysis to compare rivaling national product estimates to stock market behavior in the frequency domain. Close...

We use a Bayesian dynamic factor model to measure Germany's pre World War I economic activity. The procedure makes better use of existing time series data than historical national accounting. To investigate industrialization we propose to look at comovement between sectors. We find that...

This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 de- rived from diffusion indices. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model to obtain aggregate and sectoral economic activity indices. We find a remarkable increase in volatility across World War I, which is reversed...

Etwa 52 Millionen Menschen verließen im 19. Jahrhundert Europa, 32 Million davon in Richtung USA. Dabei stellten Deutsche zwischen 1850 und 1890 die zahlenmäßig größte Gruppe unter ihnen. Viele dieser Personen waren qualifizierte Fachkräfte, die mithalfen, die noch junge und wachsende...

The study develops a real wage series for Germany c. 1500-1850 and analyzes its relationship with population size. From 1690 data density allows the estimation of a structural time series model of this relationship. The major results are the following: First, there was a strong negative...

This study investigates the relation of pre-railroad transport infrastructure on Westphalian grain market integration in the early 19th century. It is motivated by recently found indications of macroeconomic change in Prussia such as increased demand for labour, disappearance of positive...

This paper presents new archival evidence about amount and structure of central government disaster relief during China's devastating flood of 1823. While the flood affected 20 percent of China's counties, spending per capita was sizable and distributed between provinces depending on the...

In Malthusian economies, crop shortages could be a matter of life and death. The development of regional and national markets for grain held the potential to provide insurance against the demographic consequences of local crop failure. Weather shocks that are reflected in price data, however,...

The study develops two new real wages series for Germany c. 1500-1850 and analyzes their relationship with population size. From 1690 data density allows the estimation of a structural time series model of this relationship. The major results are the following: First, there was a strong negative...