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In this paper, we develop a financial stress index for France that can be used as a real-time composite indicator for the state of financial stability in France. We take 17 financial variables from different market segments and extract a common stress component using a dynamic approximate factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292635
Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328746
which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420692
of the modern business cycle: financial-crisis recessions are more costly than normal recessions in terms of lost output …; and for both types of recession, more credit-intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318835
The financial crisis 2008-2009 and the European sovereign debt crisis have shown that stress on financial markets is important for analyzing and forecasting economic activity. Since financial stress is not directly observable but is presumably reflected in many financial market variables, it is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286071
recessions (depth, steepness and duration) in the case of the Mexican states employment during the 2001-2003 and 2008 …-2009 recessions. The original models are extended to include the effects of external and fiscal shocks, as measured by the annual … steepness of prior recessions (as measured by the percentage accumulated drop and the monthly average growth rate of employment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011400606
recessions. If benefits are too generous, however, the programs can lengthen unemployment and raise the unemployment rate. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011404836
It is widely suggested that there is some relationship between banking crises and recessions. We assess whether there … is evidence for interdependency between recessions and banking crises using both non-parametric tests and unconditional … predict banking crises and recessions and if these variables can explain the previously observed interdependence. Inclusion of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010323565
-cycle framework how individuals respond to recessions. Our focus is on the sharp increase in savings rates that have been observed in … the current and recent recessions. We show empirically that these saving spikes were short-lived and common to all working … age groups. We then study life-cycle models in which recessions involve one or more of: (i) an aggregate permanent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010331007
This paper examines trends in household consumption and saving behaviour in each of the last three recessions in the UK … cutbacks in expenditure - with a greater reliance on cuts to nondurable expenditure than was seen in previous recessions. We … show that, both inside and outside recessions, the extent to which the growth in durable purchases is more volatile than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010331050