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price volatility, and compares their forecasting performance to the standard GARCH, fractionally integrated GARCH (FIGARCH …) and the two-state Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models via three loss functions (the mean squared error, the mean … criteria and forecast horizons, while MS-GARCH mostly comes out as the least successful model. Applying various VaR backtesting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306665
The global financial crisis of 2008 proved that what initially appeared to be relatively small losses in the financial system can be magnified to systemic ones. The European Union debt crisis has thus revived interest in the interdependence across different markets, especially sovereign debt...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014332511
heteroscedasticity (CGARCH (1, 1)) model. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimator on data covering 1970 to 2020 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015074152
Although the properties of the ARCH(∞) model are well investigated, the existence of long memory FIGARCH and IARCH … finite variance FIGARCH and IARCH models and, thus, the possibility of long memory in the ARCH setting was doubtful. The … present paper solves this controversy by showing that FIGARCH and IARCH equations have a non-trivial covariance stationary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460773
This paper uses sovereign CDS spread changes and their volatilities as a proxy for the informational efficiency of the sovereign markets and persistency of country risks. Specifically, we apply semi-parametric and parametric methods to the sovereign CDSs of 10 eurozone countries to test the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010311861
fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) model. Our algorithm is a variation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012431068
and structural breaks on fractality is investigated through the ARFIMA-FIGARCH and ARFIMA-HYGARCH models. We observe that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012484800
This paper presents a family of simple nonparametric unit root tests indexed by one parameter, d, and containing Breitung's (2002) test as the special case d = 1. It is shown that (i) each member of the family with d 0 is consistent, (ii) the asymptotic distribution depends on d, and thus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292072
Empirical support for the long-run Fisher effect, a hypothesis that a permanent change in inflation leads to an equal change in the nominal interest rate, has been hard to come by. This paper provides a plausible explanation of why past studies have been unable to find support for the long-run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292360
This paper examines the dynamics of stock prices in Ukraine by estimating the degree of persistence of the PFTS stock market index. Using long memory techniques we show that the log prices series is I(d) with d slightly above 1, implying that returns are characterised by a small degree of long...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292682