Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 17,999
Cover Image
Learning about the term structure and optimal rules for inflation targeting
Tesfaselassie, Mewael F.; Schaling, Eric; Eijffinger, … - 2006
In this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273990
Cover Image
Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields
Diebold, Francis X.; Li, Canlin - 2003
pays comparatively little attention to fitting the entire cross section at any given time and has been shown to forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298283
Cover Image
A Case Where Barro Expectations Are Not Rational
Schlicht, Ekkehart - 2012
This note generalizes Feldstein’s (1976) criticism of Barro’s(1974) analysis for the case that the interest rate exceeds the growth rate. This is done by considering an economy in steady state where all agents hold “Barro expectations”: they believe that government debt must necessarily...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010427647
Cover Image
A case where Barro expectations are not rational
Schlicht, Ekkehart - 2012
The paper generalizes Feldstein's criticism (Perceived Wealth in Bonds and Social Security, 1976) of Barro's analysis (Are Government Bonds Real Net Wealth?, 1974) for the case that the interest rate exceeds the growth rate. This is done by considering an economy in steady state where all agents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010308120
Cover Image
The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations
Orphanides, Athanasios; Williams, John C. - 2004
We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the effects of policymakers' misperceptions of the natural rate of unemployment during the late 1960s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298293
Cover Image
Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge
Orphanides, Athanasios; Williams, John C. - 2007
We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change and where private agents and the central bank possess imperfect knowledge about the true structure of the economy. Policymakers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604810
Cover Image
Rational expectations and inflation targeting: An analysis for ten countries
Fromlet, Pia - 2010
the ten countries, the United Kingdom has conducted inflation targeting most in line with the theory of rational …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321410
Cover Image
Pooling Forecasts in Linear Rational Expectations Models
Smith, Gregor W. - 2007
either with forecasts from a fully solved model, or with the instrumented actual values, or with forecast survey data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011940743
Cover Image
Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography
Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2006
involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand … countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299102
Cover Image
Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography
Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2006
involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand … countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604624