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on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605231
We study the transmission of monetary shocks and monetary policy with a behavioral model, corrected for potential misspecification using the DSGE-VAR framework elaborated by DelNegro and Schorfheide (2004). In particular, we investigate if the central bank should react to movements in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430077
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models have recently become standard tools for policy-oriented analyses. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real-time forecasts from a richly-specified DSGE model to those from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605156
This Paper describes a procedure for constructing theory restricted prior distributions for BVAR models. The Bayes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322787
This paper shows how to identify the structural shocks of a Vector Autore-gression (VAR) while at the same time estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that is not assumed to replicate the data generating process. It proposes a framework to estimate the parameters of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263747
. We discuss two challenges to successful estimation of DSGE models: potential model misspecification and identification … problems. We argue that prior distributions and Bayesian estimation techniques are useful to cope with these challenges. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293445
This paper presents an approach to identify aggregate price reset hazards from the joint dynamic behavior of inflation and macroeconomic aggregates. The identification is possible due to the fact that inflation is composed of current and past reset prices and that the composition depends on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270709
This paper introduces inventories in an otherwise standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) of the business cycle. Firms accumulate inventories to facilitate sales, but face a cost of doing so in terms of costly storage of intermediate goods. The paper's main contribution is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281471
We estimate the short run effects of Brexit border disruption on the UK economy. We estimate a structural VAR for the UK where Brexit effects are identified by the dates of Brexit events, the referendum and the exit from the single market. We find evidence of short run effects of Brexit:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480601
This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the European Monetary Union by using Bayesian techniques. A salient feature of the model is an extension of the typically postulated quadratic cost structure for the monopolistic choice of price variables. As shown in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281666