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bond risk premiums. Furthermore, the model-implied risk premiums account for up to 40% of the variability of one- and two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506774
macroeconomic sources of risk. From the estimated term premia we recover the term structure of interest rates and examine how it …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261080
-switching VECM approach for U.S. data outperforms a linear VECM. Moreover, the regime shifts in the risk premium and the equilibrium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263095
debated. Using a cointegrated VAR model of US treasury yields, this paper extends a common approach to test the theory. If, as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295270
debated. Using a cointegrated VAR model of US treasury yields, this paper extends a common approach to test the theory. If, as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298612
The dynamic behaviour of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605677
We build a dynamic capital structure model to study the link between systematic risk exposure and debt maturity, as … raises the costs of financing. The risk premium embedded in the bankruptcy costs causes firms with high systematic risk to …, endogenous maturity choice can also reduce and even reverse the effect of rollover risk on credit spreads. We provide empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010319636
to meet their financial obligations. It is based on classical financial-statement approach, a direct inclusion of risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269950
We assess the effect of aggregate stock market illiquidity on U.S. Treasury bond risk premia. We find that the stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326359
Many economic studies on inflation forecasting have found favorable results when inflation is modeled as a stationary process around a slowly time-varying trend. In contrast, the existing studies on interest rate forecasting either treat yields as being stationary, without any shifting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326362