last two years, can well be explained. Alongside the more traditional macroeconomic determinants like core inflation … Einflüsse und/oder strukturelle Faktoren zum niedrigen Niveau der Renditen in den USA in den letzten Jahren beigetragen haben …

importance of modelling a system that includes the forcing variables as well as the rate of inflation is emphasized. We also …

Measuring and displaying uncertainty around path-forecasts, i.e. forecasts made in period T about the expected …-parametric estimation is impractical given commonly available predictive sample sizes. Instead, this paper derives the approximate … techniques are applied to provide confidence bands around the Fed and Bank of England real-time path-forecasts of growth and …

We examine recursive out-of-sample forecasting of monthly postwarU.S. core inflation and log price levels. We use … fractional integration and structural breaks in the meanand variance of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s and weincorporate these …) model with those for ARIMA(1,d,1) models withfixed order of d=0 and d=1 for inflation. Comparing meansquared forecast errors …

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …

indicators for the US and Germany, we demonstrate that our inflation sentiment indicators improve forecast accuracy in comparison …In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their … inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared …

involving U.S. inflation and GDP growth. Empirical results suggest that the number of change points is larger than previously …

development of adjacent age groups is assured allowing for consistent forecasts. We develop an appropriate Markov Chain Monte … approach we are able to asses uncertainty intuitively by constructing error bands for the forecasts. We observe that in … particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that hitherto existing forecasting methods …

similar development of adjacent age groups is assured, allowing for consistent forecasts. We develop an appropriate Markov … Bayesian approach we are able to assess uncertainty intuitively by constructing error bands for the forecasts. We observe that … in particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that existing forecasting methods …

The necessity of improving the forecasts accuracy grew in the context of ac- tual economic crisis, but few researchers … inflation rate forecasts on the horizon 2010 - 2012, we proved that the one-step-ahead forecasts based on updated AR(2) models … of the variable to predict. After evaluating the accuracy of the new forecasts, we found out that all the proposed …