Optimal trading strategies for pairs trading have been studied by models that try to find either optimal shares of stocks by assuming no transaction costs or optimal timing of trading fixed numbers of shares of stocks with transaction costs. To find optimal strategies that determine optimally...

We propose a dynamic auction mechanism for efficiently allocating multiple heterogeneous indivisible goods. These goods can be split into two distinct sets so that items in each set are substitutes but complementary to items in the other set. The seller has a reserve value for each bundle of...

Statistische Prognosen basieren auf der Annahme, dass ein funktionaler Zusammenhang zwischen der zu prognostizierenden Variable y und anderen dimensionalen beobachtbaren Variablen x=(x1,...,xj)t – Rj besteht. Kann der funktionale Zusammenhang geschätzt werden, so kann im Prinzip für jedes x...

Risk attitude and perception is reflected in brain reactions during RPID experiments. Given the fMRI data, an important research question is how to detect risk related regions and to investigate the relation between risk preferences and brain activity. Conventional methods are often insensitive...

We propose the use of a local autoregressive (LAR) model for adaptive estimation and forecasting of three of China's key macroeconomic variables: GDP growth, inflation and the 7-day interbank lending rate. The approach takes into account possible structural changes in the data-generating process...

We analyze a three-player legislative bargaining game over an ideological and a distributive decision. Legislators are privately informed about their ideological intensities, i.e., the weight placed on the ideological decision relative to the weight placed on the distributive decision....

A decision maker (DM) must address a series of problems over time. Each period, a random case arises and the DM must make a yes-or-no decision, which we call a ruling. She is uncertain about the correct ruling until she conducts a costly investigation. A ruling establishes a precedent, which may...

In the ideal Black-Scholes world, financial time series are assumed 1) stationary (time homogeneous) and 2) having conditionally normal distribution given the past. These two assumptions have been widely-used in many methods such as the RiskMetrics, one risk management method considered as...

In this paper we analyze a legislative bargaining game in which parties privately informed about their preferences bargain over an ideological and a distributive decision. Communication takes place before a proposal is offered and majority rule voting determines the outcome. When the private...