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Forecasting with DSGE models
Christoffel, Kai; Warne, Anders; Coenen, Günter - 2010
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605231
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The impact of supply constraints on bank lending in the euro area - crisis induced crunching?
Hempell, Hannah Sabine; Kok, Christoffer - 2010
Aggregate loan development typically hinges on a combination of factors that impact simultaneously on the demand and the supply side of bank lending. The financial turmoil starting in mid-2007 had detrimental consequences for banks’ balance-sheets, cost of funds and profitability, thus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605308
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Monetary policy for smoothing real fluctuations? Assessing Finnish monetary autonomy
Saarenheimo, Tuomas - 1996
The possible participation of Finland in the Stage m of the European Monetary Union would constitute a major change in … Finland?This is the question the present paper seeks to analyze. In the first part of this paper, we review and evaluate the … to which monetary autonomy has served to stabilize the real economy in Finland.This model is applied to analyze directly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012147696
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Since when have FOREX markets incorporated EMU into currency pricing? Evidence from four exchange rate series
Wilfling, Bernd - 2001
evidence for two distinct views concerning the ultimate EMU membership: (1) Finland and France were considered irrefutable EMU …-switching GARCH model this paper estimates the volatility processes of four EMU exchange rate returns vis-?-vis the German mark using … daily data for the time prior to Stage III of EMU. Statistical inference yields the dates at which financial markets began …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295594
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EMU-eron vaikutukset: Simulointeja NiGEM-mallilla
Suni, Paavo - 2014
A withdrawal of a member state from the EMU due to market pressure has been a rather popular topic in the public debate … have been concentrated on the crisis countries, but as the Finnish economic difficulties have deepened also on Finland. In … the report, the effects of the potential withdrawal of Greece, one of the weakest economies in the EMU, is studied first …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037659
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Convergence in GDP per Capita in the Euro Area and the EU at the Time of COVID-19
Licchetta, Mirko; Mattozzi, Giovanni - In: Intereconomics 58 (2023) 1, pp. 43-51
This paper investigates determinants of convergence in GDP per capita in the euro area and the EU between 1995 and 2021. It finds that the COVID-19 crisis temporarily slowed convergence but the estimated negative impact is significantly smaller than during the global financial crisis. Diverging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014334683
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Towards a progressive EMU fiscal governance
Álvarez Peralta, Nacho; Feigl, Georg; Koratzanis, Nasos; … - 2019
The fiscal governance of the EMU is in dire need of reform. Its current arrangements suff er from several shortcomings … economic objectives in guiding the conduct of fiscal policies; and last but not least, the fact that, under the EMU … by a lack of instruments for effective economic policy at the EMU level, we contribute to the ongoing debate on how to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014565890
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Fiscal federalism and a separate budget for the euro area
Oręziak, Leokadia - In: International Journal of Management and Economics 54 (2018) 2, pp. 85-98
The core objective of this paper is to determine the main political and economic conditions and challenges related to the possible evolution of the integration process in the euro area toward fiscal federalism and fiscal union as a way to increase the capacity of the area to cope with future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015192053
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Towards a single performance indicator in the EU's fiscal governance framework: An assessment of the expenditure and structural balance rules in the European fiscal governance framework
Benalal, Nicholai; Freier, Maximilian; Melyn, Wim; Van … - 2022
A key element of the European reform agenda is to simplify the EU fiscal governance framework by moving towards a single debt anchor and a single operational indicator as the basis for formulating fiscal targets and assessing compliance. This paper puts forward an in-depth analysis of two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013331895