-term forecasting? the production function approach?in terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the … three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth for the individual G7 countries is conducted. To carry out the forecast …

directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success … directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion. …

react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other … methods of density forecast combination, such as Bayesian model averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show …

forecast combination literature, the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast outcomes are examined by pooling …

-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and usable for policy analysis under different …

. Building on the forecast combination literature, the paper examines the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast …

classical criteria, as well as forecast combination techniques with constant and non-constant weights. With respect to the … standard GARCH specification, the non-linear models generally lead to better forecasts in terms of both smaller forecast errors … and lower biases. In-sample forecast combination regressions are better than those from single Mincer …