This report presents the methodology for the construction of the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) and investigates the economic situation in twelve Central and East European Countries (CEECs) between 2001 and 2012. The objective of this paper is to capture...

We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of a bubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of the financial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show how the...

This paper proposes a general statistical framework for systemic financial stress indexes. Several existing index designs can be represented as special cases. We introduce a daily variant of the ECB's CISS for the euro area and the US. The CISS aggregates a representative set of stress...

This paper proposes a general statistical framework for systemic financial stress indices which measure the severity of financial crises on a continuous scale. Several index designs from the financial stress and systemic risk literature can be represented as special cases. We introduce an...

Abstract We present new short, medium, and long-run indicators to date and characterise expansions and contractions in financial and economic time series. These Bull-Bear Indicators (BBIs) measure the risk-adjusted excess return with respect to average, to different time horizons, expressed in...

This paper introduces a weekly GDP indicator to track real economic activity in Germany in real-time. We use a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model with quarterly, monthly, and weekly indicators and obtain the weekly GDP indicator as the weighted common component of the mixed-frequency dataset....

This paper presents forecasts for the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the period 0 - 0 5 for six countries in the region, namely the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. It is a continuation of the endeavor to construct...

Die Arbeit untersucht die Aussagen des Sachverständigenrates zur Beurteilung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (SVR) bezüglich der Stabilität der Finanzmärkte. Die systemischen Risiken von Finanzmärkten werden vom SVR klar angesprochen, die Notwendigkeit einer staatlichen Regulierung...

According to theory, market concentration affects the likelihood of a financial crisis in different ways. The “concentration-stability” and the “concentrationfragility” hypotheses suggest opposing effects operating through specific channels. Using data of 160 countries for the period...