Labour-market policies are increasingly being decided on a regional level. This implies that institutions have an increased need for regional forecasts as a guideline for their decision-making process. Therefore, we forecast regional unemployment in the 176 German labour market districts. We use...

The labour-market policy-mix in Germany is increasingly being decided on a regional level. This requires additional knowledge about the regional development which (disaggregated) national forecasts cannot provide. Therefore, we separately forecast employment for the 176 German labour- market...

Die Arbeitslosigkeit für die 176 deutschen administrativen Arbeitsmarktregionen (im Allgemeinen Arbeitsagenturbezirke) wird auf einer monatlichen Basis prognostiziert. Wegen ihrer geringen Größe existieren zwischen diesen regionalen Einheiten starke räumliche Interdependenzen. Um diese und...

Die Alterung der Bevölkerung werde die Arbeitslosenzahlen in Deutschland deutlich sinken lassen - so wird mitunter argumentiert. Weil demografische Verschiebungen bereits in der Vergangenheit zu beobachten waren, wird in diesem Kurzbericht untersucht, ob in den letzten 20 Jahren ein...

Zur Existenz und Verbreitung von Niedriglohnbeschäftigung liegen vielfältige Forschungsbefunde vor. Dagegen gibt es wenige wissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse darüber, wo Niedriglohnbezieher ansässig sind. Georeferenzierte Daten erlauben es erstmals, ihre räumliche Verteilung über Städte...

This paper analyses the performance of migrants on the German labour market and its dependence on the tasks performed on their jobs. Recent work suggests quantifying the imperfect substitutability relationship between migrants and natives as a measure for the hurdles migrants have to face. Our...

The geographical distribution and persistence of regional/local unemployment rates in heterogeneous economies (such as Germany) have been, in recent years, the subject of various theoretical and empirical studies. Several researchers have shown an interest in analysing the dynamic adjustment...

In this paper we analyze the consequences of small labour-market entry cohorts on (un)employment in Western Germany. From a theoretical point of view, small entry cohorts may on the one hand reduce unemployment due to "inverse cohort crowding" or on the other hand increase unemployment if...

The development of employment and unemployment in regional labour markets is known to spatially interdependent. Global Vector-Autoregressive (GVAR) models generate a link between the local and the surrounding labour markets and thus might be useful when analysing and forecasting employment and...