We estimate a New Keynesian general-equilibrium open economy model to examine how changes in oil prices affect the macroeconomy. Our model allows oil price changes to be transmitted through temporary demand and supply channels (affecting the output gap), as well as through persistent supply side...

We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and ‘data-lean’ environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a dynamic factor model with data from the euro plus...

Monetäre Transmission und Bankdarlehen in Deutschland In diesem Beitrag wird die Rolle von Bankdarlehen im monetären Transmissionsprozeß in Deutschland untersucht. Wir folgen einem sektoralen Ansatz, indem wir Kredite der Banken an Geschäfts- und Privatkunden unterscheiden. Wir haben...

Druck auf die Bundesbank? Wir untersuchen, ob die deutsche Zentralbank auf politischen Druck reagiert. Wir befassen uns hauptsächlich mit zwei Punkten – mit der Rhetorik der Bundesbank, für die der Bundesbankindex für die monetäre Entwicklung charakteristisch ist, und mit der...

Auswirkungen der Erweiterung der Europäischen Währungsunion für die europäische Geldpolitik: Eine wirtschaftspolitische Ansicht In diesem Beitrag untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen der Erweiterung der Europäischen Währungsunion aus einer wirtschaftspolitischen Perspektive. Unser Argument ist...

We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter ('nowcasts' and 'forecasts' respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on...

In light of the U.S. current account deficit, pressure is high on Asian countries to revalue their currencies. The calls from some U.S. policymakers for tariffs on imports from China has sparked fears that this could trigger a world-wide surge in protectionism. This study evaluates the risk of...

This study investigate how debt restructurings have evolved over the decades. Debtors and creditors have a long history of engaging an outsider a third party”, such as the IMF to organise and facilitate debt restructurings. As we show, the importance of these third parties” has grown over...

Building on the growing evidence on the importance of large data sets for empirical macroeconomic modeling, we use a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) model with more than 260 series for 20 OECD countries to analyze how global developments affect the Canadian economy. We focus on several sources of...

The good forecasting performance of factor models has been well documented in the literature. While many studies focus on a very limited set of variables (typically GDP and inflation), this study evaluates forecasting performance at disaggregated levels to examine the source of the improved...