The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has witnessed that house prices may have a profound effect on the economy. A key question for researchers and policymakers is what can be learnt from forecasts of changes in house prices. We use survey data from the WSJ forecast poll to analyze this question....

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price...

Recent price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using survey data for Canada, Japan, and the United States, we did not find...

We study whether forecasts of the rate of change of the price of oil are rational. To this end, we consider a model that allows the shape of forecasters' loss function to be studied. The shape of forecasters' loss function may be consistent with a symmetric or an asymmetric loss function. We...

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125,2005), we analyzed whether the loss function of a sample of exchange rate forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Using forecasts of the euro/dollar exchange rate, we found that the shape of the loss...

Using forecasts of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso, we analyze the shape of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectional heterogeneity with respect to the shape of the loss function. While some...

In this paper the relatively new technique of neural nets is integrated in a traditional model of portfolio choice. On the basis of Arrow’s State Preference Model the investment decision depends on the expectation building process which consists of two components. The individual information...

This study investigates experimentally whether people in retrospective are self-aware that they engage in status-seeking behavior. Subjects participated in a real-effort task where effort translated into a donation to a charity. Within-subjects we varied the visibility of their performance...

Auf der Basis einer internetbasierten Umfrage wurde die Prävalenz von Wettbewerbsverzerrungen im deutschen Fußball untersucht. Aufgrund der sensitiven Fragestellungen wurde die Randomized Response Technik eingesetzt, um Verzerrungen im Antwortverhalten zu reduzieren. Die Ergebnisse der Umfrage...

In the European Emissions Trading System, power generators hold CO2 allowances to hedge for future power sales. First, we model their aggregate hedging demand in response to changes in expectations of future fuel, carbon and power prices from forward prices. This partial equilibrium analysis is...