The paper investigates the impacts of demographic change on the financial sustainability of a pay-as-you-go social security system in an economy with unemployment caused by trade unions. Using a simple two-period overlapping generations approach, it can be shown that the trade union behavior...

This paper investigates how demographic change affects the financial sustainability of a defined benefit pay-as-you-go social security system in an environment with collective bargaining on the labor market. Temporary equilibrium analysis shows that the contribution rate decreases, if the...

This paper investigates how demographic change affects the financial sustainability of a pay-as-you-go social security system in an environment with collective bargaining on the labor market. Partial equilibrium analysis shows that the contribution rate or the benefit level decreases, if the...

This paper analyses whether the severe demographic change in Germany causes its high current account surpluses. An ageing population both increases the supply and lowers demand of capital in an economy. Due to a longer life span individuals save more. Fewer workers reduce the optimal capital...

This paper presents long term projections of the German pension system that are based on a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations (OLG). This framework takes into account the two way feedback of both micro and macroeconomic relationships, meaning that households, for example,...

Dieses Papier stellt Modellrechnungen zur Entwicklung der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung (GRV) vor. Es beruht vorwiegend auf dem MEA-PENSIM Modell des Munich Center of the Economics of Aging (MEA) und ergänzend auf dem PENPRO-Modell des DIW. Das Modell projiziert aus Annahmen und Setzungen in...

The currently observed demographic change consists of two independent develop-ments that differ in structure and persistence: (1) A slow, monotonic and (presum-ably) permanent ageing effect caused by an increasing life expectancy; (2) a morerapidly changing, non-monotonic and less permanent...

This paper shows that demographic change plays an important role in the formation of a country's net foreign asset position. An ageing population both lowers the demand and increases the supply of capital in an economy. Fewer workers reduce the required capital stock. As a longer life span leads...

The traditional debate on the real and financial consequences of ageing is based on two assumptions: a deteriorating old-age dependency ratio and declining productivity of an ageing population. Both suppositions are questionable. Relevant for the future burden is not the old-age dependency ratio...

In this paper, the author deals with the question how to make PAYG pension systems financially resistant to fluctuating fertility rates. The author presents two pension schemes that lead to a permanently balanced budget but differ in the mixture of changes in the contribution rates and...