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Using structural VARs, I find that external shocks are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets. Furthermore, U.S. monetary policy shocks affect quickly and strongly interest rates and the exchange rate in a typical emerging market. The price level and real output in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010275790
investigate whether employing the narrative monetary shock account as a proxy variable in a VAR model aligns both shock series. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317291
, characterise somehow the monetary policy shock and then plot impulse responses. In this paper I attempt to do this exercise with …’ strategy applied recently by several authors. I also propose another approach, namely, imposing restrictions on implied shock ….1-0.15% lower consumer prices; (4) the impact on prices is slower than on output; it reaches its bottom 4-6 years after the shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322447
We propose a benchmark prior for the estimation of vector autoregressions: a prior about initial growth rates of the modeled series. We first show that the Bayesian vs frequentist small sample bias controversy is driven by different default initial conditions. These initial conditions are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605309
This paper studies regime dependence in the effects of monetary policy shocks for the U.S. using a threshold vector autoregressive model. In a high inflation regime the standard results from the literature obtain. In a low inflation regime output shows no significant response to monetary policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286403
We analyze several identification frameworks based on operating procedures to measure monetary policy in a small open economy. We use a two-stage non-recursive VAR model to identify monetary shocks. We construct then various overall monetary policy indicators based on different residuals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430022
policy analysis. It suggests that the best method of solving the puzzle implies a close connection between theory and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281167
Following a contractionary monetary policy shock, the aggregate output decreases over time for six to eight quarters …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263223
This paper provides a model that can account for the almost uniform staggering of wage contracts in some countries as well as for the markedly nonuniform staggering in others. In the model, short and long contracts as well as long contracts concluded in different periods are strategic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269942
This paper provides a model that can account for the almost uniform staggering of wage contracts in some countries as well as for the markedly nonuniform staggering in others. In the model, short and long contracts as well as long contracts concluded in different periods are strategic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270522