This paper studies the importance of money for inflation in the euro area. An inflation equation is derived from a small model that combines the supply and demand for money with a Phillips curve and the assumption that inflation expectations develop adaptively. The model's solution attributes an...

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two composite leading indicators are carefully selected from...

This study develops an easy forecasting model using prefectural data in Japan. The Markov chain known as a stochastic model corresponds to the vector auto-regressive (VAR) model of the first order. If the transition probability matrix can be appropriately estimated, the forecasting model using...

Piston plays a vital role in almost all types of vehicles. The present study discusses the behavioral study of a piston manufacturing plant. Manufacturing plants are complex repairable systems and therefore, it is difficult to evaluate the performance of a piston manufacturing plant using...

Purpose: The main purpose of this article is to explore the trade-off between ordering policies and disruption risks in a dual-sourcing network under specific (or not) service level constraints, assuming that both supply channels are susceptible to disruption risks. Design/methodology/approach:...

The primus inter pares of the UN Millennium Development Goals is to reduce poverty. The only internationally accepted method of estimating poverty requires a measurement of total consumption based on a time and resource demanding household budget or integrated survey over 12 months. Rather than...

Efficiency and sustainability often clash if limited-tenure use rights for renewable natural resources are rented to private resource managers. We introduce a mechanism reconciling these two issues for a stochastically developing natural resource. The mechanism selects the most patient and,...

Solvency II defines minimum capital requirements from insurance companies, due to their exposure to risk. Regulatory bodies of the Brazilian insurance market issued regulations based on a deterministic model for the calculation of risk based capital. In this study, we discuss a simple...

Risk diversification is the basis of insurance and investment. It is thus crucial to study the effects that could limit it. One of them is the existence of systemic risk that affects all of the policies at the same time. We introduce here a probabilistic approach to examine the consequences of...

Electricity retailers face increasing uncertainty due to the ongoing expansion of unpredictable, distributed generation in the residential sector. We analyze how increasing levels of households' solar PV self-generation affect the short-term decisionmaking and associated risk exposure of...