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Geography or skills: What explains Fed watchers’ forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?
Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2006
The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers. Based on a … novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 … financial market volatility after FOMC meetings. Finally, Fed communication may exert an influence on forecast accuracy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604741
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A double-edged sword: High interest rates in capital-control regimes
2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014306479
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Social value of public information: testing the limits to transparency
Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2007
Transparency has become an almost universal virtue among central banks. The paper tests empirically, for the case of the Federal Reserve, two hypotheses about central bank transparency derived from the debate of Morris and Shin (2002) and Svensson (2006). First, the paper finds that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604867
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Geography or skills: what explains Fed Wachters' forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?
Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2008
The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US … monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of … influencing such heterogeneity as Fed communication is found to affect forecast accuracy significantly. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299141
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The timing of central bank communication
Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2005
This paper explores whether there are systematic patterns as to when members of the decision-making committees of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank communicate with the public, and under what circumstances such communication has the ability to move financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604611
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The Educational and Professional Background of Central Bankers and its Effect on Inflation - An Empirical Analysis
Göhlmann, Silja; Vaubel, Roland - 2005
We assume that central banks can control inflation so that inflation rates reflect the preferences of the central bank council.The hypothesis to be tested is that these preferences depend on the central bankers? educational and/or professional background. In a panel data analysis for the euro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261030
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Some variables are more worthy than others: New diffusion index evidence on the monitoring of key economic indicators
Armah, Nii Ayi; Swanson, Norman - 2011
Central banks regularly monitor select financial and macroeconomic variables in order to obtain early indication of the impact of monetary policies. This practice is discussed on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website, for example, where one particular set of macroeconomic indicators is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282848
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Zinserhöhung der EZB: Wie groß ist die Inflationsgefahr?
Mayer, Thomas; Schmieding, Holger; Jäger-Ambrozewicz, … - In: ifo Schnelldienst 64 (2011) 14, pp. 3-26
werden. Es wäre somit wünschenswert, wenn die EZB ihre begonnene restriktive Geldpolitik fortsetzen würde. Hans Wolfgang …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011693203
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Do Interventions Smooth Interest Rates?
Fischer, Andreas M. - 2000
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430014
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Monetary policy predictability in the euro area: an international comparison
Wilhelmsen, Bjørn-Roger; Zaghini, Andrea - 2005
The paper evaluates the ability of market participants to anticipate monetary policy decisions in the euro area and in 13 other countries. First, by looking at the magnitude and the volatility of the changes in the money market rates we show that the days of policy meetings are special days for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604550