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This paper first shows that the forecast error incurred when assuming that future inflation will be equal to the inflation target announced by the central bank is typically at least as small and often smaller than forecast errors of model-based and published inflation forecasts. It then shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604610
This paper analyzes whether nation-state governments can increase their credibility by becoming members of … international organizations. Credibility is an important asset because it determines the real interest rate and is expected to have … organizations can improve the credibility of nation-state governments. This hypothesis is tested by introducing a new indicator. On …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263282
This paper analyzes whether nation-state governments can increase their credibility by becoming members of … international organizations. Credibility is an important asset because it determines the real interest rate and is expected to have … organizations can improve the credibility of nation-state governments. This hypothesis is tested by introducing three new indicators …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264350
Since the turn of the millennium the problem of credibility of the social security system has spread to the private … credibility of pension fund performance and, as a consequence, of pension reform. Our credibility indicator is derived from a CAPM … fundamentals and the credibility of pension fund investment and the asymmetric effects of the fundamentals in the two regimes of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265691
We examine the incentives of an interest group to provide verifiable policy-relevant information to a political decision-maker and to exert political pressure on her. We show that both lobbying instruments are interdependent. In our view information provision is a risky attempt to affect the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266260
Once you allow for persistence in macroeconomic variables, two aspects of exchange rate credibility emerge whose … of regime-dependent determination of credibility for major EMS countries. The model separates two regimes that are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270676
macroeconomic model of commitment and credibility. As the dependent variable, we calculate a post-reform inflation rate. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270683
The effect of 'locking-in' economic reform and enhancing its credibility is generally regarded as one of the most … thus to improve the credibility of the Syrian process of reform at home and abroad. A major loophole of the agreement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293526
-)establish credibility, optimal monetary policy under discretion is shown to set higher interest rates today if average inflation exceeded … term in the central bank's optimal instrument rule, which we refer to as the credibility loss. Augmenting a standard Taylor … seven central banks and that this influence is economically meaningful. A deteroriation in credibility forces central …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294449
The paper compares the credibility of currency boards and (standard) pegs. Abandoning a currency board requires a time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296385