Subjective beliefs play a role in many economic decisions. There is a large theoretical literature on the elicitation … of beliefs, and an equally large empirical literature. However, there is a gulf between the two. The theoretical … literature proposes a range of procedures that can be used to recover beliefs, but stresses the need to make strong auxiliary …

graphing tools are used, such as, probability paper and different specifications of exponential functions representing … cumulative probability distributions. The argument is that traditional time-series analysis implies a given universe, usually …

probability. With some notable exceptions, the empirical literature seems intent on either making those strong assumptions or … structural maximum likelihood methods. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability … which we elicit subjective probabilities. We calibrate the estimates of subjective beliefs assuming that choices are made …