uncertainty is closely related to the output growth uncertainty. In forming expectations, individual forecasters seem to behave …

. Revisions of expectations generally lead to larger forecast errors. Subjective uncertainty measures, which are available at the … time of forecasting, are useful in assessing future forecast errors. …

uncertainty is closely related to the output growth uncertainty. In forming expectations, individual forecasters seem to behave …

This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We … not cause systematic distortions to aggregated survey information. However, micro level analysis of expectations would …

; (iv) newer generation Phillips curve models with several timevarying features are a promising avenue for forecasting …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … useful information. By contrast, incorporating expectations derived from financial market prices or those of firms and …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … useful information. By contrast, incorporating expectations derived from financial market prices or those of firms and …

evidence that the Phillips curves' goodness of fit is rather high. However, forecasting power is comparatively low. …