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distribution. As an empirical illustration, we use euro area data and compare the forecasting performance of the New Area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605581
We propose a novel time-varying parameters mixed-frequency dynamic factor model which is integrated into a dynamic model averaging framework for macroeconomic nowcasting. Our suggested model can efficiently deal with the nature of the real-time data flow as well as parameter uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012120406
We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency … for the presence of selective attention offer improved fitting and forecasting results. Specifically, we document a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012695515
A modification of the self-perturbed Kalman filter of Park and Jun (1992) is proposed for the on-line estimation of models subject to parameter instability. The perturbation term in the updating equation of the state covariance matrix is weighted by the measurement error variance, thus avoiding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010456954
We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency … for the presence of selective attention offer improved fitting and forecasting results. Specifically, we document a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012581964
This paper discusses how the forecast accuracy of a Bayesian vector autoregression(BVAR) is affected by introducing the zero lower bound on the federal funds rate. As abenchmark I adopt a common BVAR specification, including 18 variables, estimatedshrinkage, and no nonlinearity. Then I entertain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011388143
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010352397
Forecast models with large cross-sections are often subject to overparameterization leading to unstable parameter estimates and hence inaccurate forecasts. Recent articlessuggest that a large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with sufficient prior information dominates competing approaches....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312051
, inflation expectations, exchange rate changes and stock market volatility among others. Hence, forecasting the price of gold is … allows both the forecasting model and the coefficients to change over time. Based on this framework, we systematically … measure of the forecasting performance. We carefully assess which predictors are relevant for forecasting at different points …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420994
This paper assesses the forecasting performance of various variable reduction and variable selection methods. A small … and a large set of wisely chosen variables are used in forecasting the industrial production growth for four Euro Area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605818