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A systematic comparison of professional exchange rate forecasts with judgmental forecasts of novices: Are there substantial differences?

Schmidt, Robert; Leitner, Johannes - 2004

markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296526

Biases of professional exchange rate forecasts: Psychological explanations and an experimentally based comparison to novices

Leitner, Johannes; Schmidt, Robert; Bofinger, Peter - 2003

reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305737

Monetary Policy with Diverse Private Expectations

Kurz, Mordecai; Motolese, Maurizio; Piccillo, Giulia; … - 2015

We study the impact of diverse beliefs on conduct of monetary policy. We use a New Keynesian Model solved with a quadratic approximation. Aggregation renders the belief distribution an aggregate state variable. Diverse expectations change standard results about a smooth trade-off between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500419

Monetary Policy with Diverse Private Expectations

Kurz, Mordecai; Motolese, Maurizio; Piccillo, Giulia; … - 2015

We study the impact of diverse beliefs on conduct of monetary policy. Individual belief is modeled by a state variable that defines an individual's perceived laws of motion. We use a New Keynesian Model that is solved with a quadratic approximation hence individual decisions are quadratic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011739596

Social Security and the Interactions Between Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk

Harenberg, Daniel; Ludwig, Alexander - 2014

We ask whether a PAYG-financed social security system is welfare improving in an economy with idiosyncratic and aggregate risk. We argue that interactions between the two risks are important for this question. One is a direct interaction in the form of a countercyclical variance of idiosyncratic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011753257

Social Security in an Analytically Tractable Overlapping Generations Model with Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk

Harenberg, Daniel; Ludwig, Alexander - 2014

When markets are incomplete, social security can partially insure against idiosyncratic and aggregate risks. We incorporate both risks into an analytically tractable model with two overlapping generations and demonstrate that they interact over the life-cycle. The interactions appear even though...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011753268

Idiosyncratic risk, aggregate risk, and the welfare effects of social security

Harenberg, Daniel; Ludwig, Alexander - 2018

We ask whether a pay-as-you-go financed social security system is welfare improving in an economy with idiosyncratic productivity and aggregate business cycle risk. We show analytically that the whole welfare benefit from joint insurance against both risks is greater than the sum of benefits...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011817196

Idiosyncratic risk, aggregate risk, and the welfare effects of social security

Harenberg, Daniel; Ludwig, Alexander - 2017

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064270

Social security in an analytically tractable overlapping generations model with aggregate and idiosyncratic risk

Harenberg, Daniel; Ludwig, Alexander - 2015

When markets are incomplete, social security can partially insure against idiosyncratic and aggregate risks. We incorporate both risks into an analytically tractable model with two overlapping generations. We derive the equilibrium dynamics in closed form and show that joint presence of both...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064274

Biased auctioneers

Aubry, Mathieu; Kräussl, Roman; Manso, Gustavo; … - 2023

We construct a neural network algorithm that generates price predictions for art at auction, relying on both visual and non-visual object characteristics. We find that higher automated valuations relative to auction house pre-sale estimates are associated with substantially higher...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013557352