We adapt the (Sidrauski, 1967) monetary model to study the hypothesis of anticipation of future consumption. We assume that anticipation of future consumption affects an agent's instantaneous utility and that all effects of future consumption on current wellbeing are captured by the stock of...

This paper presents an extension of the two-period Samaritan's Dilemma in order to analyze the potential for foreign aid to promote freedom. An example is the United States' recent opening towards Cuba. It is shown that a donor nation's dual concern for economic reforms and greater freedoms can...

This paper studies the expulsion of Jews from Spain in 1492. This forced migration process is addressed with a model that blends demographic, religious and macroeconomic features. The optimal migration path is derived. It is shown that a large portion of the Sephardim community fled the country...

This paper addresses some of the issues faced by macroeconomic model builders in analysing the monetary transmission mechanism. These include the sensitivity of the policy simulation results to changes in the monetary and fiscal policy rule and the introduction of forward-looking behaviour in...

We quantify the degree of persistence in unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. In part of the paper, we work with the concept of linear "Hysteresis" as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment. Since this is potentially a...

Using euro-area data, we re-examine the empirical success of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPCs). The nature of our re-evaluation relies on the actual empirical underpinnings of such estimates: we find existing estimates un-robust and – given that key parameters are generally calibrated...

There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common...

This paper applies linear and neural network-based “thick” models for forecasting inflation based on Phillips–curve formulations in the USA, Japan and the euro area. Thick models represent “trimmed mean” forecasts from several neural network models. They outperform the best performing...

Abstract: An important part of external or policy shocks is transmitted throughout the economy via various channels of transactions. To analyse such channels and to predict the impact of shocks, it is expedient to know who recently exchanged what with whom and for what purpose. The most...

In this paper, we analyze optimal monetary policy rules in a model of the euro area, namely the ECB’s Area Wide Model, which embodies a high degree of intrinsic persistence and a limited role for forward-looking expectations. These features allow us, in large measure, to differentiate our...