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Can this time be different? Policy options in times of rising debt
Kose, M. Ayhan; Nagle, Peter; Ohnsorge, Franziska; … - 2020
Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. Since 2010, emerging and developing economies have experienced another wave of historically large and rapid debt accumulation. Similar past debt buildups have often ended in widespread...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012388936
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An optimal early warning system for currency crises under model uncertainty
Abdelsalam, Mamdouh Abdelmoula Mohamed; Abdel-Latif, Hany - In: Central Bank Review (CBR) 20 (2020) 3, pp. 99-107
This paper assesses several early warning (EWS) models of financial crises to propose a model that can predict the incidence of a currency crisis in developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the equal weighting (EW) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approaches to combine forecast from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014547774
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Credit constraints and the persistence of unemployment
Dromel, Nicolas; Kolakez, Elie; Lehmann, Etienne - 2009
In this paper, we argue that credit market imperfections impact not only the level of unemployment, but also its … steady-state unemployment, but also slow down the transitional dynamics. We then provide an empirical illustration based on a … persistence of unemployment. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269566
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Structural Unemployment, Underemployment, and Secular Stagnation
Hashimoto, Ken-ichi; Ono, Yoshiyasu; Schlegl, Matthias - 2020
economy permanently operates below capacity due to both structural unemployment and underemployment. The latter is a direct … demand and supply shocks are opposite to those of the standard case and result in a co-movement of unemployment and … explain movements of unemployment and underemployment in opposite directions. Finally, we show that fluctuations in the total …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227658
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Structural unemployment, underemployment, and secular stagnation
Hashimoto, Ken-ichi; Ono, Yoshiyasu; Schlegl, Matthias - 2020
economy permanently operates below capacity due to both structural unemployment and underemployment. The latter is a direct … demand and supply shocks are opposite to those of the standard case and result in a co-movement of unemployment and … explain movements of unemployment and underemployment in opposite directions. Finally, we show that uctuations in the total …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012430039
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What drives financial crises in emerging markets?
Komulainen, Tuomas; Lukkarila, Johanna - 2003
probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables.Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012148450
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Banking and currency crises: differential diagnostics for developed countries
Joy, Mark; Rusnák, Marek; Šmídková, Kateřina; … - 2015
We identify a set of “rules of thumb” that characterise economic, financial and structural conditions preceding the onset of banking and currency crises in 36 advanced economies over 1970–2010. We use the Classification and Regression Tree methodology (CART) and its Random Forest (RF)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605855
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The Effects of Systemic Banking Crises in the Inter-War Period
Rocha, Bruno; Solomou, Solomos - 2015
This paper examines the time-profile of the impact of systemic banking crises on GDP and industrial production using a panel of 24 countries over the inter-war period and compares this to the post-war experience of these countries. We show that banking crises have effects that induce medium-term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500433
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Debt and financial crises
Koh, Wee Chian; Kose, M. Ayhan; Nagle, Peter; Ohnsorge, … - 2020
Emerging market and developing economies have experienced recurrent episodes of rapid debt accumulation over the past fifty years. This paper examines the consequences of debt accumulation using a three-pronged approach: an event study of debt accumulation episodes in 100 emerging market and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012388929
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Do surges in international capital flows influence the likelihood of banking crises? Cross-country evidence on capital flows bonanzas and bonanza-boom-bust cycles
Caballero, Julian - 2010
This paper asks if bonanzas (i.e. surges) in net capital flows are associated with a higher likelihood of banking crises and whether this association is necessarily through a lending boom mechanism. Using a new database covering over one hundred countries during 1973-2008, the paper shows that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287781