We assess the contribution of "undue optimism" (Pigou) to short-run fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run, but is not contemporaneously observed by market participants. In order to recover optimism shocks...

This paper explores empirically the role of noisy information in cyclical developments and aims at separating fluctuations that are due to genuine changes in fundamentals from those due to temporary animal spirits or expectational errors (noise shocks). Exploiting the fact that the...

We assess whether "undue optimism" (Pigou) contributes to business cycle fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism (or pessimism) pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run. Optimism shocks are perceived changes in productivity which do not actually...

Standard Macroeconomics treats animal spirits as a source of uncertainty disturbing otherwise rational expectations. But, Keynesian animal spirits ensue from suboptimal emotional responses to socioeconomic status change beyond matters of uncertainty. This paper identifies such spirits with the...

This paper shows that belief-driven economic fluctuations are a general feature of many determinate macroeconomic models. In environments with hidden state variables, forecast-model misspecification can break the link between indeterminacy and sunspots by establishing the existence of...

Economists, observers and policy-makers often emphasize the role of sentiment as a potential driver of the business cycle. In this paper we provide three contributions to this debate. First, we critically survey the existing literature on sentiment (considering both confidence and uncertainty)...

This paper examines Robert E. Lucas's views on the relationship of macroeconomics to real world economic phenomena, and on Keynes's place in its history, suggesting that these stem from a particular and debatable understanding of how the subdiscipline has evolved. It considers some implications...

This paper provides textual evidence of Keynes's writing and composing on issues which are linked to philosophy, moral science and economics. As a philosopher Keynes was concerned with contemporary discussion on knowledge, probability, judgment and methods of reasoning. He participated in the...

Shocks in the financial sector caused the great recession of 2008 and pulled down the real economy. To implement financial dynamics in a stylized DSGE-framework we use behavioral elements in expectations to produce waves of bull and bear cycles in the financial intermediation process, that have...

We introduce a simple equilibrium model of a market for loans, where households lend to firms based on heterogeneous expectations about their loan default probability. Agents select among heterogeneous expectation rules, based upon their relative performance. A small fraction of pessimistic...