This paper documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The paper is the result of a collaborative effort between the two institutions, allowing us to study the time-stamped...

We propose a new class of dynamic order book models that allow us to 1) study episodes of extreme low liquidity and 2) unite liquidity and volatility in one framework through which their joint dynamics can be examined. Liquidity and volatility in the U.S. Treasury securities market are analyzed...

Real-time macroeconomic data refl ect the information available to market participants, whereas fi nal data-containing revisions and released with a delay-overstate the information set available to them. We document that the in-sample and out-of-sample Treasury return predictability is signifi...

This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification. We find strong evidence for regime changes in the risk-return relation. This...

Policy impact studies often suffer from endogeneity problems. Consider the case of the ECB Securities Markets Programme: If Eurosystem interventions were triggered by sudden and strong price deteriorations, looking at daily price changes may bias downwards the correlation between yields and the...

This paper documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The paper is the result of a collaborative effort between staff at the two institutions, allowing us to study the...

The measurement of systemic risk is at the forefront of economists and policymakers concerns in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. What exactly are we measuring and do any of the proposed measures perform well outside the context of the recent financial crisis? One way to address these...

We combine self-collected historical data from 1867 to 1907 with CRSP data from 1926 to 2012, to examine the risk and return over the past 140 years of one of the most popular mechanical trading strategies - momentum. We find that momentum has earned abnormally high risk-adjusted returns - a...

We use the GARCH-MIDAS model to extract the long- and short-term volatility components of cryptocurrencies. As potential drivers of Bitcoin volatility, we consider measures of volatility and risk in the US stock market as well as a measure of global economic activity. We find that S&P 500...

We examine price discovery and liquidity provision in the secondary market for bitcoin-an asset with a high level of speculative trading. Based on BTC-e's full limit order book over the 2013-2014 period, we find that order informativeness increases with order aggressiveness within the first 10...