A standard, no-recourse mortgage contract does not adjust when the value of the underlying collateral falls. Consequently, shocks that lower house prices may trigger one of the necessary conditions for default: negative equity. A common alternative contract attempts to prevent default by...

We show that in a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity, fiscal policy can be a perfect substitute for monetary policy: three simple conditions for consumption taxes, labor taxes, and the government debt level are sufficient to induce the same consumption and labor supply of each...

In this paper we estimate yield curves from Hungarian interest rate swap and money market data. Following general practice, we experiment with several models-differing in the functional form and objective function-and chose the model which performs best according to standard evaluation criteria....

The main goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between macroeconomic shocks and yield curve movements in Hungary. To this end, we apply a Nelson-Siegel type dynamic yield curve model, where changes of the yield curve are driven by two latent factors and some key macro variables that...

This paper studies how inflation as a macroeconomic indicator affects nominal bond prices. I consider an economy with a representative agent with Epstein-Zin preferences. Regime switching affects the state-space capturing inêation and consumption growth. Thus, the agent is concerned about the...

The purpose of this paper is to show that an affine model which incorporates the condition of no arbitrage enables improvements in forecasting the term structure of interest rates in Mexico. The three factors of the yield curve (level, slope and curvature) used in the model are estimated by the...

Explanations of why changes in the relative quantities of safe debt seem to affect asset prices often appeal informally to a portfolio balance mechanism. I show how this type of effect can be incorporated in a general class of structural, arbitrage-free asset-pricing models using a numerical...

A consistent empirical feature of bond yields is that term premia are, on average, positive. The majority of theoretical explanations for this observation have viewed the term premia through the lens of the consumption based capital asset pricing model. In contrast, we harken to an older...

This paper attempts to extract market expectations about the Japanese economy and the BOJ’s policy stance from the yen yield curves augmented by money market interest rates, during the period from the end of the quantitative easing policy in March 2006. We use (i) the swap yield curves...

Pricing and hedging of long-term interest rate sensitive products require to extrapolate the term structure beyond observable maturities. For the resulting limiting term structure we show two results by postulating no arbitrage in a bond market with infinitely increasing maturities: long...