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We study how the exposure of fundamental and financial traders affects the futures curve of WTI oil and the market … integration between WTI and Brent as measured by their price spread. To obtain a parsimonious representation of the futures curve … sub-periods of a sharp WTI-price rise as well as a diverging Brent-WTI-spread. Our contribution is threefold: First, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010335954
investigates the directionally dynamic connectedness among WTI and Shanghai crude oil futures and currency markets. We explored …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014534437
We analyze the relation between European natural gas storage facilities and price patterns at major trading points, considering the theory of storage to derive a testable hypothesis imposed by the non-arbitrage condition. To model the efficiency of the natural gas market, we apply two indirect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265029
In this paper we introduce the dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) for electricity forward curves. The biggest advantage of our approach is that it not only leads to smooth, seasonal forward curves extracted from exchange traded futures and forward electricity contracts, but also to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277182
The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield which can be derived from the cost-of-carry relationship. In a recursive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295802
The regulatory changes in the german electric power market result in rising electricity price volatility. As a consequence electricity price risk management is essential for an electricity trader. The paper therefore analyzes the needed volume of futures hedging for an electricity trader, that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298507
This paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on price formation in electricity markets. For this, we conduct an analysis of the German electricity wholesale spot market which is located at the European Energy Exchange (EEX). Our dataset covers three spot market segments, namely the intraday...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305694
The mechanism behind price formation in electricity futures markets is still under discussion. Theory suggests that hedging pressure caused by deviating risk preferences is the most promising approach. This paper contributes to this discussion through an empirical investigation of electricity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305696
Comparative-statics results for financial options are often assumed to hold for real options. But the effects of higher volatility need not be increased value and postponed investment. This depends on signs of correlations and what parameters are held constant. For real options, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010330217
This paper develops a methodology to test whether recent developments on world oil markets are in line with the hypothesis of efficient markets. We treat the joint hypothesis problem as stated by Fama (1970), Fama (1991), that market efficiency can only be assessed in conjunction with a price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420945