This paper asks the question: Why has the ?general-to-specific? cointegrated VAR approach as developed in Europe had only limited success in the US as a tool for doing empirical macroeconomics, where what might be called a ?theory comes first? approach dominates? The reason this paper highlights...

We bring together some recent advances in the literature on vector autoregressive moving-average models creating a relatively simple specification and estimation strategy for the cointegrated case. We show that in the cointegrated case with fixed initial values there exists a so-called final...

This paper presents the software framework JStatCom which is geared towards the development of rich GUI clients for numerical procedures. The concept is to solve all recurring tasks with the help of reusable Java components. Optionally, one can delegate the execution of special numerical...

A Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented that makes use of a finite mixture of many model structures within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. It is applied to two empirical issues. First, stability of the Great Ratios in U.S. macro-economic time series is investigated,...

In this paper we present an empirically stable money demand model for Euro area M3. We show that housing wealth is an important explanatory variable of long-run money demand that captures the trending behaviour of M3 velocity, in particular its shift in the first half of this decade. We show...

In this paper the effects on aggregate consumption of changes in the age distribution of the population are analysed empirically. Economic theories predict that age influences individuals’ saving and consumption behaviour. Despite this, age structure effects are rarely controlled for in...

An autoregressive fixed effects panel data equation in error-ridden endogenous and exogenous variables, with finite memory of disturbances, latent regressors and measurement errors is considered. Finite sample properties of GMM estimators are explored by Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. Two kinds...

The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is discussed for handling the joint occurrence of fixed effects and random measurement errors in an autoregressive panel data model. Finite memory of disturbances, latent regressors and measurement errors is assumed. Two specializations of GMM are...

Usually, seasonal adjustment is based on time series models which decompose an unadjusted series into the sum or the product of four unobservable components (trendcycle, seasonal, working-day and irregular components). In the case of clearly weatherdependent output in the west German...