This paper discusses methods to quantify risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts. Both, parametric and non … macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank for Germany. Forecast intervals that integrate judgement on risk and uncertainty are obtained. …

This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established social cost of carbon (SCC) for … discounting, it mis-estimated climate risk, possibly hugely. Given the uncertainty about estimating the SCC, the note concludes by …

This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established social cost of carbon (SCC) for … discounting, it mis-estimated climate risk, possibly hugely. Given the uncertainty about estimating the SCC, the note concludes by …

-in for the truth. This practice ignores uncertainty in the counterfactual policy predictions of the model. We develop a … generic approach that deals with parametric uncertainty using uncertainty sets and frames model-informed policymaking as a … decision problem under uncertainty. The seminal human capital investment model by Keane and Wolpin (1997) provides us with a …

Environmental policy often has to be devised under informational constraints, like uncertainty and asymmetric …

-equilibrium ecosystem is driven by stochastic precipitation. A risk averse farmer chooses a grazing management strategy under uncertainty …-term optimal grazing management strategy. We show that a risk-averse farmer chooses a strategy such as to obtain insurance from the … analyze the long-run ecological and economic impact of different strategies. We conclude that the more risk-averse a farmer is …

Ambiguity refers to a decision situation under uncertainty when there is incomplete information about the likelihood of …

role of uncertainty and risk aversion are examined using several highly simplified models involving a possible future … suggests the use of tax-smoothing in the face of future cost increases, is modified by uncertainty regarding the future. The …

We introduce the concept of a TUU-game, a transferable utility game with uncertainty. In a TUU-game there is … uncertainty regarding the payoffs of coalitions. One out of a finite number of states of nature materializes and conditional on …