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Prediction markets for economic forecasting
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2012
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283631
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Prediction markets for economic forecasting
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2012
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287666
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Far from the madding crowd: Collective wisdom in prediction markets
Bottazzi, Giulio; Giachini, Daniele - 2016
We investigate market selection and bet pricing in a simple Arrow security economy which we show is equivalent to the repeated prediction market models studied in the literature. We derive the condition for long run survival of more than one agent (the crowd) and quantify the information content...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011789717
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Organizational structure as the channeling of boundedly rational pre-play communication
Ellingsen, Tore; Östling, Robert - 2006
We model organizational decision making as costless pre-play communication. Decision making is called authoritarian if … cognitive capacity and we characterize their behavior under each decision making regime for two different cognitive hierarchy … models. Our results suggest that authoritarian decision making is optimal when players have conflicting preferences over the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281254
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A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment
Afflerbach, Patrick; van Dun, Christopher; Gimpel, Henner; … - In: Business & Information Systems Engineering 63 (2020) 4, pp. 329-348
Research has shown that aggregation of independent expert judgments significantly improves the quality of forecasts as compared to individual expert forecasts. This “wisdom of crowds” (WOC) has sparked substantial interest. However, previous studies on strengths and weaknesses of aggregation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014504234
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Why prediction markets work: The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441838
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Why prediction markets work: The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441865
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Competing approaches to forecasting elections: economic models, opinion polling and prediction markets
Leigh, Andrew; Wolfers, Justin - 2006
We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the … in each forecasting technology, and also because the increased majority achieved by the Coalition surprised most pundits … various betting agencies suggests a more reasonable degree of volatility, and useful forecasting performance both throughout …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267283
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Five open questions about prediction markets
Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2006
prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267442
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How prediction markets can save event studies
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2011
This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274808