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Prediction markets for economic forecasting
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2012
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283631
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Prediction markets for economic forecasting
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2012
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287666
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Far from the madding crowd: Collective wisdom in prediction markets
Bottazzi, Giulio; Giachini, Daniele - 2016
We investigate market selection and bet pricing in a simple Arrow security economy which we show is equivalent to the repeated prediction market models studied in the literature. We derive the condition for long run survival of more than one agent (the crowd) and quantify the information content...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011789717
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An examination of the IFS corporation tax forecasting record
Basu, Suman; Emmerson, Carl; Frayne, Christine - 2003
This paper examines the corporation tax forecasting techniques used by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. For current … year forecasts a judgemental forecast is found to have performed better than relying solely on a simple model or … information on the receipts available so far in the current financial year. For longer time horizons the judgemental forecast has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293091
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Dynamic prediction pools: An investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance
Del Negro, Marco; Hasegawa, Raiden B.; Schorfheide, Frank - 2014
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE … react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other … methods of density forecast combination, such as Bayesian model averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340986
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A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model
Giesen, Sebastian; Holtemöller, Oliver; Scharff, Juliane; … - 2010
In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model - the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) - is closely related to studies recently published...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271586
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A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment
Afflerbach, Patrick; van Dun, Christopher; Gimpel, Henner; … - In: Business & Information Systems Engineering 63 (2020) 4, pp. 329-348
Research has shown that aggregation of independent expert judgments significantly improves the quality of forecasts as compared to individual expert forecasts. This “wisdom of crowds” (WOC) has sparked substantial interest. However, previous studies on strengths and weaknesses of aggregation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014504234
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Why prediction markets work: The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441838
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Why prediction markets work: The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441865
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Evaluating prediction markets for internal control applications
Werner, Max - 2016
This study estimates the suitability of prediction markets (as instruments of internal control) by analyzing their event and progress sensitivity based on comprehensive experimental data. The underlying experiment was designed using expected average grades and closely observing students' (rank...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011531011